If you book your Shanghai-to-Vladivostok container the second week of February, you will pay roughly USD 1,650 for a 20HQ. The same booking the third week of April lands at USD 1,250. Same lane, same carrier, same vessel class. Almost a 25 percent gap. Buyers who time the calendar do meaningfully better. Buyers who do not pay a tax to anyone who does.
January–February — Chinese New Year and the panic before it
Chinese New Year falls in late January or early-mid February depending on the lunar calendar. The two weeks before CNY are the busiest export window of the year. Every Chinese exporter is trying to clear inventory before the factories shut for two to three weeks. Container availability tightens. Carriers add CNY surcharges (USD 100–200 per box). RoRo schedules thin out as Chinese-flag carriers head home for crew rotation.
If your timing is flexible: avoid the two weeks pre-CNY. If your timing is not flexible: book three weeks in advance, not one. The slot you can get in mid-January at headline rates becomes a gamble at higher rates in the actual week before CNY.
Late February–March — the soft window
The two weeks after CNY are the cheapest of the year. Factories are restarting, container supply is normalised, demand has not picked up yet. We typically book any flexible-timing shipment in this window. Spot rates often dip below the published rate sheet by 8–12 percent.
Catch: Chinese customs and CIQ are also restaffing. Export documentation can take an extra 2–3 days versus normal. Build the buffer in.
April–May — the steady, predictable window
By April, things are at baseline. Rates are average, capacity is average, customs is fast. If you are a dealer running monthly turnover and want predictability, April-May is the window to use as your reference. Anything substantially above April rates is high; anything substantially below is opportunistic.
This is also when most large-volume orders from our Russia and Kenya dealer accounts batch — and consequently when container demand starts to lift again toward the summer peak.
June–August — the typhoon period
Two issues compound here. First, ocean freight rates start to rise as global summer demand picks up (back-to-school, US holiday season inbound). Second, typhoon season hits the Pacific routes. Carriers reroute or delay. A 7–10 day Shanghai-to-Vladivostok run can become 11–14 days. Insurance claims for weather damage tick up.
Many dealers we work with intentionally front-load Q1 inventory in March-April so they can ride through July-August on existing stock without booking expensive summer shipments. This is a real strategy, not a coincidence.
September–October — Golden Week and the second pre-holiday squeeze
China's National Day holiday (October 1–7) creates a mini-CNY effect. Factories don't shut for as long but logistics get squeezed for two weeks. Book before mid-September if you can.
Autumn is also the strongest window for EV exports from China — manufacturers push end-of-year volume targets and discount actively. We see new BYD, Zeekr and Li Auto stock available with better China-side pricing than at any other time. If you are a Chinese-EV-focused dealer, this is your window.
November–December — the New Year scramble
Russian buyers in particular try to land vehicles before the calendar year flips for utilization fee and registration reasons. Vladivostok customs and SBKTS labs are slammed from mid-November onwards. We have seen 5–8 day clearance delays in the third week of November every year for the past four years.
If you must ship in this window for Russian destination, book the vessel in October, not November. The vessel sails in November and clears in mid-December.
The simple rule
For most dealers running steady turnover, two booking windows per year cover most of your inventory needs at meaningfully better rates than reactive buying:
- February 25 – March 25 (the post-CNY soft window)
- September 10 – October 20 (pre-Golden Week and Russian new-year prep)
Use the freight calculator on our shipping page for current spot indications. Our internal lane-rate database goes further than the public calculator; if you want real numbers for a specific routing and timing, the partnership team can share them on a dealer call.